JIM VAN FLEET's Blog

oh yeah...more storms later today. around a 60% - 70% chance of thunderstorms mainly moving into the mid-afternoon and evening hours, only spotty morning showers can be expected today.

the weekend will still see arounr 40% both days in the middle of the afternoon. high temps will be in the mid 80's.

jim

we are starting with a lot of the light scattered showers this morning. this is because of low pressure coming in from the gulf and yucatan. it will likely be with us all day today so rain gear will be needed throughout the day.

most of the morning showers will be just light and not that heavy, but a few showers will bring brief heavy rainfall for the morning commute.

rain coverage comes way down for wednesday - friday. however the upcoming weekend looks like rain chances will be back up to around 50% - 60%.

sub tropical storm "laura" is still out there and moving northward so it is not a threat to the us coastlines.

t-storms should start to fire up here shortly and covera good part of central florida. i am forecating around a 50% - 60% coverage once we do see them get going.

sub-tropical storm "laura" is out there in the northern atlantic and forecasted to stay in the north right now. we do not expect it to turn southward at this time.

kyle also still churning away will keep ripping up in the north atlantic and be gone from nova scotia here shortly.

tuesday will bring another round of thunderstorms and then we should see much lower rain coverage from wednesday through friday.

jim

first the forecast...

muggy, cloudy day with a high rain coverage. 60% of the area will see thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. some of you will see mid-morning and midday thunderstorms as the atmosphere heats up.

rain chances come way down and even the high temperatures will drop to mid 80's by the middle of the week and stay there through the upcoming weekend.

now the fun....

thank you to everyone who came out to support the florida sheriff's youth ranches at sheriff ben johnson's battle of the badges this weekend in new smryna beach. my band had a wonderful time playing there again this year, and i had a great time fishing again with the sheriff.

check out my new profile pic and that is one of the two monster redfish we caught saturday. mine was a 20 lb red, and the sheriff caught a 24 lb red.

if you want to catch fish like that then call my friend captain dennis cox at 386-299-7675. for two years in a row he has had us pull out 20 lb reds in two completely different locations. this captain will get you on the fish!!

have a great week!

jim

well not today...but starting tomorrow and lasting for about 6 days at least we will see high temps in the mid to upper 80's.

a stalled out cold front is leading to the minor degree change in the forecast. it is more importantly leading to a higher rain forecast coverage for the next 6 days (around 50% each day).

so far also, the tropics remain unusually quite for late september...i say quitely!!

have a great wednesday!

for an early update on this hurricane click on this link and watch former fox 35 meteorologist...now fox 26 houston morning meteorologist - kristi powers.

http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/pages/Weather/Det
ail?contentId=6676108&version=151&locale=EN-US&layoutCo
de=VSTY&pageId=9.1.1

this hurricane is forecast to bring the right side of the hurricane to galveston bay and the houston area overnight tonight and pre-dawn hours tomorrow.

this is a devastating storm for southeast texas and will likely be our worst us severe weather event of 2008.

in the meantime there will only be isolated thunderstorms this afternoon - 20%-30% coverage today and even lower for the upcoming weekend.

jim

The last two days have been good news as you have seen us talk about on the shows.

As long as Hanna doesn't move more west than we are going to see minimal impacts on the coast. Big waves and rip currents, along with tropical storm force wind gusts. You may want to have windows facing the ocean boarded up but otherwise, not too likely with this track we will have damagin winds.

Be prepared for a change in the forecast so that you could react with little notice. If we have to adjust the track more west than a HUGE change in the forecast would be seen because we would be taking on more of the storm itself, meaning stronger impacts for you.

Jim

with the new track out this is looking like we talked about on the morning show today. while i hope we can keep the nasty part of this storm offshore, it is tracking a little further west which means volusia, brevard, flagler counties will likely be dealing hurricane force winds in the pre-dawn hours friday morning.

this should be a quick moving storm so unlike "fay" that lasted for days this would be considerably shorter in duration only lasting around 8-12 hours in time.

with a faster track i would expect heavy showers and storms but not likely to get another major flooding event. areas that are already flooded though could see the waters stay at the current stage or possibly go a little higher to do rain that hanna could bring.

thought's right nwo would be anyone living on the coast or immediate beachline would probably be better off boarding up to protect your homes. i do not think at this time you would need to board up in the metro orlando. but if the eye tracks further west you would have very LITTLE time to react and board up so keep checking back and getting the latest advisories.

jim

with gustav now onshore and louisiana being battered, we now need to start thinking about the end of the week and hanna.

right now it looks like it will track like many hurricanes in our histlry and stay just offshore scraping us with tropical storm force winds wednesday night into friday midday.

this storm will bring beach erosion, rough surf and isolated tornadoes from orlando to the east coast during this time.

if the high pressure ridge builds back to the south then there is a chance "hanna" could cross central florida. so while the track is to go to savannah, georgia we need to monitor this storm and be prepared for it to shift....just in case it does.

in the meantime only a 30% coverage of thunderstorms today and partly cloudy skies. some high clouds are sticking around and those are the high cloud bands from gustav.

jim

hanna is a threat to florida around mid week next week due to a track that wants to take a southerly turn around wed. that would place it in the central and southern bahamas and not a good placement for florida. we need to monitor this storm! some models take it further south or hang in the open atlantic...i'll take either one of those solutions vs. coming to the sunshine state.

gustav still needs to be watched even thought the official track is for louisiana and texas to take the harder hit from this storm. some models bring it into our panhandle instead so please keep up with this storm too. it is forecasted to become a major hurricane.

you holiday weekend will have afternoon thunderstorms all three days, with a higher coverage expected sudnay and monday afternoon and evening. the best thing you can do is get out the door early so you can have sunshine and some dry hours before things begin to change.

keep up with the tropics....see you monday!

jim

11am advisory from the Hurricane Center numbers  (T.D. #7) that low south of Hispaniola and will be named "Gustav" before too long.

Another tricky forecast is in the line-up and we will have to see if the center of this storm camps over Cuba (which would be good with the terrian) or frees itself and runs through the Florida Straits and then into the Gulf of Mexico.

If option "B" happens then we are right back into watching closely what the impacts would be for Florida. Let's hope it is option "A" the storm goes with.

Tune in today at 5pm for the latest forecast and a look at the afternoon thunderstorms.

Jim

brevard county and volusia will take a pretty good beating over the next 48 hours. this storm is slowing down and that will mean longer lasting rainfall. flooding and tornadoes will be the main concern.

the center should pass between orlando and the space coast sometime tonight around 8pm - 12am and then kick back out into the open waters of the atlantic in the overnight hours wed. into thu.

in orlando you will start to notice the winds picking up around midday today and then get pretty strong in the late afternoon hours. i would expect winds  around 30mph-50mph.

be careful with rotating storms today. they could produce tornadoes with very little warning to get to safety.

jim

don't know how much blogging there will be time for tomorrow once we are under the gun, so i thought i would update a little now.

as we talked about on the morning show this storm has been reminding me of charley all weekend. it is weaker, but it is also moving slower...that's not good.

the hurricane center has not gone higher than a cat one hurricane, but i think there is a real good chance that it blows up in the 86-89 degree water over the keys. i think it could easily be a medium sized hurricane if not a major one before coming ashore around ft. myers to the naples area tomorrow morning.

it will weaken once over land again, but if it does get real strong then we are looking at the chance of hurricane force winds in central florida.

two things to note -

the center or "eye" would be passing over west orlando and west orange county, and also lake and sumter counties too so be ready for that to occur tuesday evening into wednesday morning. rotating storms and damaging winds can be expected around the center. winds right now could be expected around 45mph - 75mph

secondly, the right side of the storm would be passing through orlando and all of the east coast so i would expect brevard and volusia counties to take a pretty hard thump. rough surf, beach erosion, possible tornadoes, flooding rains are all expected throughout the eastern side of the state so take action now to be prepared. it will be a long day tomorrow.

jim

our highest coverage of storms is going to be through the morning and early afternoon hours. i am forecasting around a 60%- 70% coverage with mainly heavy rain expected, but there could be some pockets of strong winds.

bumped up saturday's thunderstorms in early afternoon to 50% coverage, and then sunday looks best with a 30% coverage.

this wave over puerto rico could go either way. if it curves we are good...no real problems other than maybe some beach erosion. if it strengthens and does not curve...all bets are off and we could be boarding up on the coast...seriously.

this will be the closest tropical system so far of the 2008 season, and it could get stronger will very little time to react...PLEASE track this and get updates each day of the weekend so you are not surprised on monday.

have a great weekend!

jim

our highest coverage of thunderstorms is expected today at around 70%. we will see these getting started in the late morning / lunchtime hours and then carrying on through the ret of the day.

friday is about a 50% coverage and then the weekend we will see a lower coverage of thunderstorms both days - 20% - 40% coverage.

this tropical low east of puerto rico is on track to skirt just east of our coastlines early next week, and i would expect this to be "fay" when it does.

models are all over the place with calculations of winds from as low as 30mph to as high as low end cat 3 winds......needless to say....it is time to WATCH THIS and monitor your tropical section of this website for the latest information.

if the track stays close to what i am looking at right now, this storm stays offshore and brings us big waves, beach erosion, and most thunderstorms and strong wind stay offshore.

stay tuned....

jim