Rich on the Road

First John McCain rips the Republican National Committe for attempting to tie Barack Obama to the Blagojevich scandal -- now Newt Gingrich!

Gingrich has written a letter to RNC Chairman Mike Duncan demanding that a web ad that makes it appear the President Elect had something to do with the alleged effort to sell his Senate seat be pulled immediately.  Here's part of it:

The recent web advertisement, "Questions Remain," is a destructive distraction. Clearly, we should insist that all taped communications regarding the Senate seat should be made public. However, that should be a matter of public policy, not an excuse for political attack.

In a time when America is facing real challenges, Republicans should be working to help the incoming President succeed in meeting them, regardless of his Party.

From now until the inaugural, Republicans should be offering to help the President-elect prepare to take office.

Furthermore, once President Obama takes office, Republicans should be eager to work with him when he is right, and, when he is wrong, offer a better solution, instead of just opposing him.

This is the only way the Republican Party will become known as the "better solutions" party, not just an opposition party. And this is the only way Republicans will ever regain the trust of the voters to return to the majority.

This ad is a terrible signal to be sending about both the goals of the Republican Party in the midst of the nation's troubled economic times and about whether we have actually learned anything from the defeats of 2006 and 2008.

Interesting stuff.  On the face of it, at least, both Sen. McCain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich appear to be making a serious plea to ramp down the rhetoric.  Arguing that the economic crisis makes it incumbent on everybody to take a higher road in Washington.

I applaud that.

Rich

 

His feet are being held to the fire.  It's a burning issue in Washington D.C.  Don't blow smoke now -- President Elect Obama, do you or don't you (insert drum roll)  -- have you or have you not -- quit cigarettes???

Okay, enough with the bad puns.  Apparently, Mr. Obama has not entirely quit smoking.  Says he still, occasionally, "falls off the wagon."  He is promising, however, not to smoke in the White House which is a smoke-free zone.

It all got me to wondering about the history of smoking presidents.  George W. Bush -- like a lot of former presidents -- apparently does indulge in the occasional cigar.  Lot of cigar smoking among presidents -- JFKwas another.  Bill Clinton, regretably, also -- well, I won't go there.  But, suffice to say that a lot of presidents smoked cigars.  Fewer, among presidents of the 20th Century, smoked cigarettes, from what I can glean:

Cigarette smokers:

Warren Harding, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and Lyndon Baines Johnson smoked while in the White House.

Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan were smokers (DDE very heavy smoker) but quit before they got to the White House.

Gerald Ford puffed a pipe.

So, smoking certainly has a history on Pennsylvania Avenue.  I guess if President Obama feels the urge he'll have to go out in the Rose Garden or something.

Of course the best story of all involves President Teddy Roosevelt and his rebellious daughter Alice.  Teddy declared that no woman under his roof would ever smoke - so Alice went up to the roof of the White House to puff away. 

Finally, the exasperated president declared:

"I can do one of two things: I can either run the country or control Alice, but I cannot do both."

Rich

The Minnesota Senate race, now in the midst of a recount, is one of the whackiest ever.  Comedian-turned-politician Al Franken is now just 115 votes behind incumbent Republican Norm Coleman with about half the process completed. 

Take a look at some of the ballots that are being challenged.

These all come off a website called 236.com.

Being a native Minnesotan, I can honestly say that the politics and the voters there are even crazier than Texas.  Minnesota did, after all, elect Jesse Ventura.

Al Franken couldn't be any more unconventional than Jesse, could he?

Clearly some of these voters had way tooo much time on their hands when they entered the voting booth.

Rich

When I saw this the first time it left me speechless.  We've been hearing for some time that there was tension between the McCain campaign and Sarah Palin -- but now it's coming out in the open. 

I offer this from Fox News -- Shep Smith and Carl Cameron -- without further comment.

Rich

Exit polls were off in 2000.  Worse in 2004.  Nobody trusts them.  Pollsters have also tried to wall them off -- to prevent early leaks.  Despite all that -- the leaks are becoming a torrent.  And, if there is any validity at all to the leaked numbers it is going to be a bad night for John McCain.

The networks only hint at them now.  Fox just did so.  Telling us on the air that the poll numbers look good for Barack Obama but, wisely, advising that they "need to be taken with a grain of salt."

Matt Drudge is not hinting at all.  He has a big red headline now "EXIT POLL NUMBERS SHOW OBAMA BIG."

FYI.

Rich

We've heard it from politicians before -- vows to make Washington less partisan, promises to reach across the aisle and get government working again.  None has been willing or able to follow through in recent years.  But, again this time both Barack Obama and John McCain are making the promise.  And, I believe them both.  Whichever man is elected tomorrow, I think they will make a good faith effort to change the culture in our nation's capitol, to try and get Republicans and Democrats pulling in the same direction, instead of constantly engaging in political gamesmanship.

The nominations of McCain and Obama were each a victory for a certain kind of politics.  They defeated others in their party who tried the Karl Rove style of divide and conquer that worked for George W. Bush.  John Edwards among Democrats tried the make-'em-angry approach and it fell flat.  Mitt Romney on the Republican side, you could argue, did the same and fell short of McCain who reached out instead to moderates and independents.

One of the things I really liked about Mike Huckabee was his "I'm a conservative but I'm not angry about it" approach.  Huckabee surprised a lot of people and got a lot more votes than anybody expected.  I think, at least in part, because some of us are tired of all the nasty stuff.

But, if the two men running for President are willing to ratchet down the rhetoric and the spitefulness --  and, this is a big BUT --  are you willing to do the same?  Are WE the voters willing to bury the hatchet and move on?  Honestly, I don't think so.  Not from what I see on this blog.  Not from what I hear in the streets.  And, that cuts from one end of the political spectrum to the other.  Democrats demonize Republicans.  Republicans demonize Democrats.  Good, loving people become hateful and angry when the subject of politics comes up. 

Wednesday morning America will wake up to a new president that roughly half of us did not vote for.  But, he will be President of the United States.  It promises to be a real test of our national character.

Rich

In general, people who tell you they don't believe the polls are really just saying they don't like what the polls are telling them.  In this case, if you want John McCain elected president and not Barack Obama -- well, just don't believe the polls.

The fact is that polls over the last 50 years have been very accurate.  In a close race they can't tell you exactly who is going to win but, generally, they are within a couple percentage points of the outcome.

Having said that,  this year IS different.  And, the obstacles facing pollsters are much greater than they've been in the past.  I think voters are much more likely to lie to pollsters (for what reason I can't imagine other than just to be obstinate) and others are much more likely to refuse to answer (which makes more sense to me if they feel it's a privacy issue).  The emergence of cell phones has made it more difficult to get an accurate sample because pollsters have traditionally contacted people on landlines.  But, the overriding problem this year is in figuring out who will actually vote.  Blacks and young people have registered in much larger numbers than in the past.  From what we've seen in early voting, Blacks are clearly turning out in bigger numbers but there is evidence that, once again, young voters are largely no-shows.  Maybe they're waiting for election day.  To get an accurate sample pollsters need to figure out who really is a likely voter.  The old models are not going to work this time. 

Thus, the polls are all over the place.  They all show Obama leading but the range is ridiculous -- from 15 points to a narrow 2 or 3.

I think Exit Polling is going to be even more difficult to do accurately.  Suspect Exit Poll numbers in 2000 caused all sorts of confusion.  In response, everyone was much more careful with the Exit Poll numbers in 2004 but they were worse.  The Washington Post called the 2004 Exit Poll results the most inaccurate ever.   Add to that the growing influence of Early Voting (half the Texas vote or more will be over by today) and Exit Polls get really complicated.

Then there's the so-called Bradley Factor.  Named after a Los Angeles mayor who ran for the Senate decades ago.  Polled as if he were in the lead the whole way but then got beat.  The conclusion was that in Californa then, at least, some white voters would claim they were voting for a Black candidate but then would not actually cast their ballot for him.  Most political observers will tell you that the Bradley Factor has not been seen in decades but....  Well, it's still being tossed around as a possibility this time.

If I was a betting man (I'm not except for the occasional soda wager) I would put my money on Obama.  The polls can occasionally be wrong.  But, they will have to be substantially wrong  for John McCain to win.  Every tossup state will have to go his way and a couple of states that look like sure wins for Obama will have to break right, too.

Still - something tells me unusual things could happen on Tuesday.  John McCain is predicting an upset like we had 60 years ago -- 1948 Democrat Harry Truman -- declared dead in the polls -- instead beat Republican Tom Dewey.

The final poll is always the one that counts.  And, we should know about that one pretty early Tuesday night.  If McCain holds on to Ohio and the other battleground states that George Bush won four years ago, there will be a race.  If Virginia and Ohio -- maybe even North Carolina go for Obama -- it's probably over. 

Either way, I'm ready for it all to be over.

Rich   

Just got the latest Rasmussen poll on Texas voters.  Not that much polling is being done here because it's everybody's foregone conclusion that John McCain will win and win handily.

Not as handily as George Bush did in 2000 and 2004 (when he outpolled Gore and Kerry by over 20% points) if the latest Rasmussen is right.  It has McCain leading 53-45 among likely voters.  Still a comfortable margin. 

Texas voters, it would appear, have made up their minds.  Only 2% report being undecided.  Most of the rest of it is no surprise.  Blacks overwhelming support Obama.  Republicans overwhelmingly vote for McCain, Democrats for Obama.  Independents give McCain the nod 50-46%

The one breakdown that really jumps out at me is the 18-29 voter -- young people.  In Texas they are (according to Rasmussen) overwhelmingly supporting McCain 72-28%.  Nationally, the registration of millions of new young voters is seen as a boon to Obama.  Young voters are thought to be key to his hopes for victory.  Apparently, not in Texas, though.

Rich

I will be so glad when this election is over.  Having said that, Sarah Palin's appearance on Saturday Night Live was very entertaining on a number of levels.  Very funny.  She handled herself well.  And, I will take all the humor I can get out of this nasty, nasty election process.

Rich

Just a short post today.  I made the mistake of blogging about politics a couple of days ago and reading some of the comments is a little disturbing, though I'm sure it's mild by comparison to other blogs here.  The casual racism some of you display, in particular.
Mexican-Americans are Americans too, aren't they onelanguage?  They should be able to seek office, too, shouldn't they?  Or, should only anglo males be given that privilege?
And, moankie.  You are STILL telling the lie that Obama is a muslim?  Shame on you.
I try to keep my politics to myself (I don't have quite the fervor for it that most of you do anyway) but I really don't mind divergent viewpoints.  I encourage that.  This blog space tends to be ultra-conservative but there have been bloggers from the other end of the spectrum who were just as scary in their anger and bias.  Ghurka was one I had to delete in the past.  But, I haven't seen his comments lately.  Did the mob run him off?    
All in all, people who comment on my blog have toned it way down.  And, I appreciate that.  I really do.  And, I don't want to discourage comment.  Please be passionate about your beliefs.  Chew me out if you think I have erred.   But, don't slide down in the mud of racism and lies.
Rich 

Thomas Jefferson HS/Dallas

I don't cover politics as much as I used to.  But, tonight, I'm being reminded of one of the least appealing parts of the process - waiting for the candidate.  In this case, waiting for Bill.  No politician I've ever encountered is as consistently late to events as President Clinton.  Nobody else even close.

The rally here at TJHS was supposed to start at 6:30.  By 5, we were being told that President Clinton was running an hour late.  I'm tempted to start a pool.  I'd put a buck on 8:15. 

But, that's a small complaint.  Minor irritant.  The Democrats who've filled up the auditorium here are having a blast.  They've introduced a couple dozen candidates for local office, each getting a little more face time because the main draw is running late.

And, it's a boost for the Democrat's Senate candidate.  It's Rick Noriega's rally.  Noriega is an intersting candidate - state lawmaker, Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, served a tour of duty in Afghanistan.  Conventional wisdom has been that Noriega didn't stand a chance against Republican incumbent John Cornyn.  Noriega doesn't have the name recognition nor the campaign coffers to run with Cornyn.  But, he has narrowed the gap in the polls (50-43 in late Sept) in recent weeks, making some Democrats hopeful of an upset and maybe a few Republicans a little nervous.  If Cornyn's Texas Senate seat isn't safe in this present climate -- whose is?

My guess is that Noriega still loses, probably not that close.  But, Democrats apparently think he has a chance and Bill Clinton will help him raise some money.

One final note - of all the county candidates who had a chance to say a few words Sheriff Valdez got by far the biggest cheer.  Interesting.

Rich

Let me begin this post by saying I honestly don't know if The Bailout is the right thing to do or not.  Whether it would stave off another Great Depression, or just save the jobs of some Wall Street types.  But, the vote today in the House of Representatives showed the character of the people we've elected -- what the House has become.

If you believe one Republican Congressman -- most in the House truly believe that without The Bailout the country is headed for economic disaster.  But, because their constituents hate the idea (me included), they don't dare vote for it.

"We're all worried about losing our jobs," Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., declared in an impassioned speech in support of the bill before the vote. "Most of us say, 'I want this thing to pass, but I want you to vote for it -- not me.' "

 "We're in this moment, and if we fail to do the right thing, Heaven help us," he said.

So.  There you have it.  Classic case of doing what you think is right for the country (if the President and Congressional leaders are to be believed) or doing what might get you re-elected (pleasing the voters).   

Vote for the Bailout and you might have a harder time getting re-elected. Vote against it and the country will suffer -- maybe a Great Depression -- but you stand a better chance of keeping the cushy job (with great benefits) in Congress. 

Wow.  Rome is burning.  And, they fiddle. 

Rich 

Gentlemen and Lady! Start your attack engines! Sling your mud!

Nobody is more distressed by the tenor of the 2008 campaign than I am.  Just last week I recieved a mass email (original source anonymous, of course) that basically made the case that Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ.  It totally misquoted Revelation (in fact, called it "Revelations" - always a sign that a true Bible scholar is at work - can't even get the name right!) and was absolutely offensive.  

Fanatics on the other end of the spectrum are busy sending out all sorts of nasty, mis-leading and false emails about Sarah Palin - though the Obama fanatics are clearly outpacing their Palin counterparts when it comes to the truly disgusting stuff.

But, having said that, this is not the nastiest campaign on record.  Not even close.  We hear people call the ongoing campaign "the dirtiest ever" every four years (a pundit said it on the newscast I anchored Saturday night) but they are wrong.

A lot of us decry the tenor and tone of modern politics, pining for the Good Ole Days when politicians stuck to the issues and voters made choices based on substance and reason -- not on attack ads and emotion. The only problem with that is -- these might be the Good Ole Days!  At least, by comparison.

The truth is that the United States has a long and shameful record of dirty campaigning and today's politicians are pikers in comparison with their forefathers. Take the Campaign of 1828, for example. Maybe the dirtiest campaign on record. Andrew Jackson's opponents accused him of murder, gambling, slave trading and treason -- in no particular order. Worse yet, they called his mother a prostitute and his wife a bigamist. His father, they claimed, was a mulatto.

Unfortunately, for Jackson and his wife, there was some truth to the "bigamist" charge. Andrew and Rachel were living as man and wife for two years before they found out her first husband had not yet completed the divorce proceedings -- imagine what modern day emailers could do with that!  Lewis Robards legally ended the marriage to Rachel in 1793 and the Jacksons married again in 1794. Oh, how is opponents ran with it, calling Rachel an adultress and both Rachel and Andrew bigamists.

Despite the mudslinging, Jackson won in a landslide over John Quincy Adams. But, his joy was short lived. Rachel died a month later, from a heart attack that most blamed on the stresses of the 1828 campaign.

I trust that no one will die from the stress of the 2008 campaign.  Though, I expect it will continue to make a lot of us a little nauseated.

Rich

I didn't actually miss the Palin and McCain speeches this week but I watched them from a cabin in Colorado instead of hovering over my computer in the newsroom following along on the pre-released speech transcripts -- more like the rest of you.  It was kind of nice.

My timing could have been better.  My bosses would have preferred that I was working Wednesday and Thursday but, months ago, I had booked airline tickets and hotel rooms for a little family business that had to be done.  It's good stuff.  Should lead to a wedding.  Really interesting story that I hope to tell you all about one day.  But, anyway, that's why I was watching Senator McCain and Governor Palin like the rest of you.  On television.  Away from work.

What I also saw on Denver TV is some of what we in Texas will be missing this fall -- McCain and Obama TV ads.  Texas is a foregone conclusion - it will almost certainly go Republican again -- so neither party wastes money on TV ads here.  It was interesting to see them a few times.  But, I'm sure the battleground states where they are playing will be sick of them by election day.  It's a perfect example of the old adage: A little goes a looong way.

After we conducted the family business we needed to conduct on Wednesday, Catherine and I drove on up to Estes Park and Rocky Mountain National Park.  We spent a glorious two and a half days hiking and critter watching -- had a blast.

I will share more of that in tomorrow's post but I wanted to include at least one picture today.  This is Alberta Falls in Rocky Mountain National Park.

Oh, what the heck -- have another one.  The elk in the park are moving into rutting season and they were all over.  A hunter outside the park told me they know when hunting season has begun and that's why they flock to the park where it's illegal to shoot them.  But, I'm getting ahead of myself.   More tomorrow.

Rich

I had a little fun a couple days ago with Sarah Palin's onetime occupation as a TV sports reporter.  Sure enough, video has now surfaced on YouTube of a 24-year old Sarah (then Sarah Heath) doing a sportscast for an Anchorage station.  Big Hair warning!

Reportedly, she was a 24-year-old intern at the time of the taping.  I must say, she read well, seemed relaxed.  Pretty impressive under those circumstances. 

Rich